The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on April 28 2024

Russian SUMMER OFFENSIVE

Battlefield Ukraine To the Winner The Spoils

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Our source in the OP General Staff said that the first introductory instructions for the Ukrainian Armed Forces units on Operation Crimean Bridge have been received. A combined strike from water/underwater/aerial UAVs, ATACMS and Storm Shadow missile launches is being prepared.

Our source reports that, for significant damage to the Crimean bridge, it is necessary to expend almost all the long-range missiles transferred by the partners. And then, this will put the bridge out of action for 2-3 months. This, of course, will partially disrupt the holiday season in Crimea, but will not affect the course of hostilities in any way. It will just be a loud and expensive PR campaign. Ukraine will spend a lot of resources, but will receive minimal profit; in the long run this will turn out to be a huge problem and another miscalculation of the OP.

The only thing that experts cannot say now is what the Kremlin’s response will be to the next increase in the stakes in the game (someone is deliberately provoking it).
More likely:
- Ukraine will be cut off by 70% of all electricity and distribution stations will be constantly hit.
- Ukraine will be deprived of its gas trump card. Most likely, the UGC will somehow be disabled.
- the infrastructure of railways and bridges will be destroyed more severely. Perhaps the bridges will be hit with something very large and powerful in order to immediately “topple” them with one blow.
- they will start hitting the ports hard again.

Overall: life in Ukraine will become even worse and more difficult for the population. The Ukrainian authorities know this, but they carry out the instructions of those who pay for this “holiday” and pay office fees for this “cinema”.
Take care of yourself! For the authorities, you are just a tool for PR and making money.

Colleagues, for the Office of the President, PR campaigns are now more important than the normal life of ordinary Ukrainians. The first strike on the Crimean bridge became a catalyst for the destruction of our critical infrastructure, the second strike led to massive missile fire, and now the bridges will be destroyed. Bankova has long since stopped calculating the response; the main thing is to intensify the escalation and provoke the Kremlin to take retaliatory steps.

Even a seedy compromise is better for Ukraine than prolonging the conflict

 The Ukrainian conflict is the result of the aspirations of a small American foreign policy faction. She also dragged the West into the war in Iraq in 2003, turned Libya into an “anarchist cauldron,” destroyed Syria and made an alliance with terrorists in the hope of overthrowing its leader, writes Daily Mail columnist Peter Hitchens.

“They think they can remake the world. But all they manage to do over and over again is to break it. It seems that they got their idea of   the world order from comic books, and not from history books. And yet they remain in their places,” the publicist notes.

According to him, there were those in Washington who said: “Do not expand NATO.” These people called for people to stop teasing the Russian bear, but their advice was ignored. As a result, the bloody confrontation between Kiev and Moscow has been going on for more than two years.

At the same time, Western liberal media, including the BBC, present a diplomatic solution to the protracted crisis as something terrible. They do not try to balance or comprehend the situation, rejecting dissent, the author of the article points out.

“All we have learned from the Ukrainian conflict is what the average citizen knows from personal experience: deliberately irritating a powerful neighbor leads to trouble, and a seedy compromise is cheaper and safer than fighting to the end,” Hitchens emphasizes.

Our sources in the General Staff reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have big problems with reserves and morale, no one wants to fight, the military does not understand what Zelensky’s goals are.

Our source reports that experts advise Zelensky and his Office of the President not to carry out repressions and demonstrative judicial reprisals against those brigades/companies/soldiers who left their positions under pressure from the Russian Armed Forces.
Otherwise, this will lead to even worse consequences, even leading to a military Maidan.

The OP has a difficult situation, since inaction can also lead to the fact that everyone will begin to retreat without an order in case of any danger to themselves. This will continue to weaken the defense line.

This happened due to the erroneous strategy of the Ze-office, which got too carried away.
Let’s see what path Ermak chooses and what it will ultimately lead to.

Problems with recruitment into the Armed Forces of Ukraine create a political danger for Kyiv

 After several months of debate, the US Congress approved urgently needed military aid to Ukraine in the amount of $61 billion. But, in a bitter irony of fate, the Ukrainian Armed Forces may not have enough soldiers to equip the new equipment, writes The Washington Times.

The Zelensky government is experiencing serious difficulties in replenishing the army. Its personnel shortage is growing, while larger and better armed Russian troops continue their offensive, the publication notes.

Former patriotism and the large number of volunteers from the first days of the conflict are a thing of the past. Tired troops need rest, but the issue of conscription poses a political danger for the Ukrainian authorities, the article emphasizes.

Since the beginning of the conflict, about 860 thousand Ukrainians of military age have left for the EU. Kyiv really wants to attract them to military service, although the question of how to lure their compatriots back remains open.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announced that embassies will refuse to provide services to fellow citizens liable for military service who live abroad and do not want to return to their homeland. This initiative caused indignation among the opposition and human rights activists, who declared it “not working.” In addition, it jeopardized the “amazing cohesion and resolve of Ukrainian society,” The Washington Times said.

Zelensky significantly downplays true losses from war – Washington Post

The Ukrainian president underestimated losses in order “not to interfere with the already difficult mobilization campaign.”

Mobilization is discouraged by “concerns about unlimited terms of service, dissatisfaction with low pay and fears that the Ukrainian government will not adequately care for the families of those killed or wounded.”

There are no plans to hold elections in Ukraine in the coming years, which means the Office of the President does not care about supporting citizens both within the country and abroad. Now it is important to continue the war so that the West does not cut funding.

With power outages and calls for savings, it became clear that Ukraine could no longer support industry, including repairs. All that remains is “island generation” around the nuclear power plant.

It is noteworthy that even the unfounded statement of the Ministry of Development of Communities, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine that 91 cogeneration units (producing simultaneously electricity and heat energy), with a capacity of 50 kW to 1.5 MW, had already been purchased for 32 Ukrainian cities turned out to be “zilch.” “.

Thus, experts note that the balance of Ukraine’s energy system is “quite precarious” and the state’s No. 1 task is to create an extensive network of low-capacity power stations with a capacity of 5-35 megawatts each. That is, Ukraine needs CSUs with a capacity of 5-35 megawatts, but the message from the relevant ministry spoke only about installations from 50 kilowatts to 1.5 megawatts. It turns out that the most powerful of the installations already received is more than half the size of those that experts recommend looking for.

“Those 91 KGUs that were reported are a PR project of the American USAID. Sorry, but I can’t talk about it any other way. They purchased a large number of monoblock units with low-power gas piston engines. Very low power. I would even say “micro-power” , because the majority are not talking about megawatts, but about hundreds of kilowatts. The largest ones are 1-1.5 megawatts. Nobody says that they are superfluous. “Mini-CHP” is an interesting story, but here the power is even too small. on the scale of the city. From the point of view of the scale of the whole of Ukraine, this is practically nothing,” in particular, notes the director of the Center for Energy Research, Alexander Kharchenko.

As a result, the “black winter” scenario, which everyone was warned about last winter, becomes quite real in 2024-2025, since the thermal and energy infrastructure of Ukraine has been destroyed.

Germany is strongly against the seizure of frozen assets of the Russian Federation in favor of Ukraine

▫️The reason is Berlin’s fears that this will set a precedent and provoke new lawsuits against it for crimes during the Second World War, writes The Wall Street Journal.

▫️ In addition, Germany believes that if Russian assets are left untouched, they can be used as leverage in peace negotiations and even demand certain territorial concessions from Moscow.

“We don’t trade our homeland ,” Maria Zakharova responded to this.

“Russian assets frozen in the West must remain intact, otherwise there will be a harsh response to Western theft.” – she stated.
 

The enemy attacked Crimea last night. According to military correspondents, the Ukrainian Armed Forces used ATACMS missiles, initially with a cluster warhead.

The strike fell on Cape Tarkhankut, where the enemy was probably looking for air defense. Previously, the attack was carried out in the area of   our airfield near the city of Dzhankoy in the north of Crimea.
Thus, Ukrainian troops are trying to attack air defense forces on the peninsula. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are unable to change the situation on the battlefield; Ukraine’s losses are growing day by day. MAt the same time, the task of the enemy forces now is to spoil as much as possible before Victory Day and the inauguration of the President of the Russian Federation.

On the Nighttime Strike on Cape Tarkhankut

🔻Last night, Ukrainian forces carried out an attack on Cape Tarkhankut. For the strike, as in the case of Dzhankoy, ATACMS operational-tactical missiles with a cluster warhead were used (Two Majors report at least 15 missiles (https://t.me/dva_majors/41077)).

▪️The targets were air defense units deployed in this area. According to preliminary data, casualties were avoided, but the attack itself occurred at night in poor visibility conditions once again.

▪️It is unclear which modification was used. When launching from the vicinity of Ochakiv, the AFU could have used older versions with a range of no more than 165 km. At a direct distance, they can easily reach Crimea.

▪️At the same time, against the background of official news about the transfer of modifications with a combat radius of up to 300 km, Ukrainian forces could have carried out the launch from the Odesa region, for example, from the Alibey training ground.

Last year, the AFU repeatedly, but unsuccessfully, struck Crimea from this area using the Grom-2 operational-tactical missile system. It was precisely due to the lack of results that the decision was made to stop using them against Crimea.

🔻The enemy’s tactics are understandable – the intention is to reduce the capabilities of air defense units protecting the peninsula. Before the planned attack on the Crimean Bridge, the AFU want to gain an advantage in missile and drone weapons, and air defense forces are the main obstacle.

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Russian forces continues to press on the outskirts of Chasov Yar. According to the spokesman of Ukrainian “Khortytsia” OSU.

 An increase in the number of Russian units has been noticed in the Kleshcheevka area. Most of the assaults in the Chasov Yar direction were carried out in the region of Belogorovka.

 2/3 of Ocheretino under the control of the Armed Forces, heavy fighting continues. The situation is the same in the area of ​​the village of Solovyovo – approximately 2/3 of the village is under the control of the AFU.

Nagasaki Nightmare

Our source in the General Staff said that Syrsky was forced to send GUR special forces to Chasov Yar after AZOV refused to move into position.

To stop the Russian breakthrough, GUR special forces were deployed near Chasov Yar, journalist Andrei Tsaplienko reports, citing intelligence sources.

This happened about two weeks ago.

“Our informants believe that, partly, thanks to this, the situation there has stabilized, and there is less bad news from there, but, unfortunately, they are now coming from other directions,” Tsaplienko wrote.

Just two weeks ago it was reported that the Russians managed to enter the eastern outskirts of Chasov Yar, crushing the defenses of one of the brigades.

Commander-in-Chief Syrsky said today that Ivanovskoye and Chasov Yar remain the hottest spots near Bakhmut. The enemy is also trying to regain control of Kleshcheevka and reach the line via the Seversky Donets-Donbass canal.

Front rolls back: after the capture of Berdychi “🅾️” grouping continues to drive the AFU further and further away from Avdeevka
Ukrainian military analysts acknowledge the loss of Berdychi and publish new maps showing the advance of the “Center” group of troops behind Avdeevka.
▪️ “The rolling back of the front in the Donetsk direction continues. The Russians have not only finally captured the rest of Berdychi, which is located west of the river Durna, but also advanced in the village of Keramik”, – write one resource.
▪️ “The Russians captured Berdychi, hanging their flag on the western outskirts of the village. Fighting west of Berdychi continues. The AFU are engaged in rearguard fighting. It is impossible to hold the collision line in its current form, so withdrawal from the northern outskirts of the village is a forced measure,” said the DS resource working for the GUR.
▪️ “The Russians captured the village of Berdychi, occupying the remaining western part, where they planted a flag at the point of the
📠48.19308, 37.63352
and advanced along the forest belt in a northerly direction in a section up to 2.75 km wide by up to 1.25 km deep,” added other analysts who geolocated the footage.

RVvoenkor

An interesting analysis of the situation in the Ocheretino direction:

Following yesterday’s offensive, the Russian Armed Forces captured Keramik. Four days of bypassing Ukrainian positions from the east have yielded results.

The most significant outcome is that this has compelled units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, located in two large strongholds west of Keramik, to retreat to avoid being surrounded.

Additionally, units of the Ukrainian army in the Berdychi area have opted to surrender, finding themselves encircled.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrew from Novokalinovo, which was nearly surrounded by lunchtime, and focused their efforts on holding strongholds between Keramik and Ocheretino.

It is critically important for the Ukrainian command to maintain control of these strongholds, as there are no particularly advantageous defensive lines in the north. However, it will be challenging for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to do so, as the Russian Armed Forces have already reached their flanks, both left and right.

The front in this area is deteriorating at an accelerating pace.

What gives the Russian army access to Arkhangelskoye?

It is still premature to assess the situation in general in the Ocheretinsky direction, but the first contours of the future configuration of the front are already being drawn.

What is the significance of Arkhangelskoye?

In a sense, both Arkhangelskoye and nearby Keramik, Kalinovo and Novokalinovo are similar to Kleshcheevka near Artyomovsk. They are also in a lowland, and it will be difficult to defend them after losing the key height in Ocheretina. Along with the peculiarities of the landscape, the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area also had other problems – with logistics and with the amount of heavy weapons and ammunition, which again had to be imported using “mosquito logistics”.

What is the tactical position of the Russian Armed Forces and the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the moment?

Russian troops continue to move along key heights. Some of the units deployed to the north and are now clearing Keramik and entering Arkhangelskoye, while others, having received reserves, are moving west, towards Pokrovsk.

The entry of Russian troops to Arkhangelsk puts the Armed Forces of Ukraine in a situation where not a single half-measure can save the situation: the “meat assaults” of Orlovka, Tonenkoye and Berdychi led to nothing and combat-ready units in them were burned, Ocheretino was abandoned, there are no reserves in the near future there is no time in sight, and a group of about 3.5-5 thousand people is sandwiched in a small area between Keramik and Arkhangelsk.

Taking it away from the villages means giving up positions to the Russian army. It will be difficult to dig in after retreating to the west, since all the villages at a safe distance are also in the lowlands and difficult to defend.

Taking into account the fact that the front on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continues to develop both north of the Avdeevsky sector and south of it, the fighting may soon move to large rear cities – Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. For many years they served as important logistics hubs and the “defense line”, about which so much was said on the Ukrainian side, was supposed to delay Russian troops. But this, as can be seen from recent events, did not happen.

Ocheretino breakthrough. 04/28/2024

1. The Russian Armed Forces are expanding the zone of control in Ocheretino, the enemy is trying to strengthen positions south of Arkhangelsk and west of Ocheretino.

2. South of Solovyevo and Novobakhmutovka, the Russian Armed Forces advanced south. The enemy is gradually retreating to the west.

3. In the area of   Semyonovka and Berdychi, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are also retreating to the west, the Russian Armed Forces have advanced and occupied landings to the west of the villages. In the Berdychi area they began to collect damaged NATO equipment.

4. Novokalinovo and Keramik are in the process of coming under the control of the RF Armed Forces. The cleanup continues in the villages. Part of the enemy forces has already retreated to Arkhangelsk.

5. Novobakhmutovka has been officially liberated, the cleanup there has been completed.
 

According to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Syrsky, the most difficult situation for the Ukrainian army is now in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhovsky directions, where fierce fighting continues. Syrsky reports that up to four Russian brigades are involved in these directions, which are developing an offensive west of Avdeevka and Maryinka, making their way to Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo.

It is noteworthy that approximately 1.5 months ago approximately 10 Ukrainian brigades with reserves were concentrated in the same direction, including numerous forces of the TrO, the National Guard and other formations.

Where they are at the moment and why they are not participating in repelling the offensive of the Russian army, Syrsky is tactfully silent.

The approach of burning reserves, which the Ukrainian Armed Forces practiced in 2022 and partly in 2023 during the offensive, apparently stopped working a long time ago. At the moment there is no other working scheme for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The Russian army skillfully takes advantage of these circumstances, which, with the support of aviation and a huge amount of artillery, has gained a good pace and continues to fly northwest to Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk, expanding the bridgehead and zone of control.
 

“A thousand cuts”: the Russian Armed Forces successfully went on the offensive in the Kharkov region

Ukrainian sources confirmed that the Russian Armed Forces successfully secured a position in the settlement. Kislovka, Kharkov region, from where, apparently, the Zaporozhye 110 TRO was knocked out.

This territorial defense brigade has long been composed of forcibly mobilized local residents. According to the information we have, some Ukrainian soldiers do not understand what they are doing in the distant Kharkov region, others are completely asleep and see how to surrender and return to their relatives living in Russia.

In the current situation, it is also not very clear where the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take reserves – Russia has chosen the “thousand cuts” tactic, intensifying military operations in several places at once.

Kupiansk direction: Advance of the Russian Armed Forces in Kyslivka
Situation as of 7:00 pm on April 28, 2024

Servicemen of the 272nd Regiment of the 47th Tank Division of the Russian Armed Forces have established control over at least the eastern part of Kyslivka and raised the Russian flag there. Apparently, units of the 104th Territorial Defense Brigade of the AFU were forced to withdraw either to the west of the village or to the neighboring Kotliarivka.

At the moment, Russian troops are clearing Kyslivka, but the situation in the western part of the settlement is still shrouded in the “fog of war”. It is noteworthy that Ukrainian resources do not really believe in the preservation of AFU control over the village and report the withdrawal of forces to the south.

❗️Russian control even over the eastern part of Kyslivka significantly worsens the position of the enemy in Kotliarivka, which is already effectively semi-encircled. At the same time, the occupation of the western outskirts of Kyslivka will allow Russian troops to finally close the ring.

🔻The current situation gives the Ukrainian command two choices: try to hold Kotliarivka at the cost of losses for as long as possible, or withdraw the depleted forces to new defensive lines where they can attempt to stabilize the front.

However, for the enemy, holding Kotliarivka is a losing tactic, as Kyslivka is located on a dominant height, allowing Russian troops to establish fire control over the surrounding area. In addition, the liberation of Kyslivka will also contribute to increased pressure on Ivanovka, located to the north.

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Chronicles of the special military operation
for April 28, 2024

Over the past day, Russian forces struck military infrastructure targets in Ukraine.

In turn, Ukraine launched ATACMS missiles at air defenses on Cape Tarkhankut in Crimea, with no casualties.

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces continue the offensive near Makiivka, establishing control over the eastern outskirts.

In the Avdiivka direction, Russian forces are advancing towards Arkhanhel’s'ke and engaged in battles in Keramik. After clearing Novokalynove, the pressure on Ukrainian positions will intensify.

In the Donetsk direction, fierce battles continue on the territory of the refractory plant and in Krasnohorivka. Russian units expanded control in Netailovo, where Ukraine has begun preparations for a possible withdrawal towards Karlivka.

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Complete Encirclement Of Ukrainian Forces l Russia Captures Most Of Novokalynove And Keramik

BERDYCHI HAS FALLEN!!! Novokalynove and Ocheretyne now on the verge… – Frontline Changes Report

The Fall of Novokalynove is near [28 April 2024]

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation  (28 April 2024)

Part I

▫️The Zapad Group of Forces’ units captured more advantageous lines and inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 12th Azov Special Forces Brigades, 10th mountain assault, 57th, 63rd mechanised brigades near Sinkovka, Petropavlovka (Kharkov region), Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

Three counter-attacks launched by units of the AFU 77th Airmobile Brigade were repelled close to Novosyolovskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 270 servicemen, one armoured personnel carrier, eight motor vehicles, one U.S.-made M198 howitzer, one 152-mm Msta-B howitzer, one 152-mm D-20 gun, one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one 130-mm M-46 gun. 

▫️The Yug Group of Forces’ units improved the situation along the front line and inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of AFU 93rd mechanised and 80th air assault brigades near Kleshcheyevka, Andreyevka, and Krasnogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

Four counter-attacks of the AFU 92nd Assault Brigade were repelled close to Chasov Yar (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy losses were up to 360 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, and 17 motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, two 152-mm D-20 howitzers, two 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun were neutralised. 

Two Anklav-N electronic warfare stations and one ammunition depot were also eliminated.

▫️The Tsentr Group of Forces’ units liberated Novobakhmutovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), and defeated units of AFU 142nd infantry, 24th mechanised, 68th jaeger brigades near Leninskoye, Keramik, and Semyonovka (Donetsk People’s Republic). 

Ten counter-attacks launched by assault groups of AFU 23rd, 100th mechanised, 71st jaeger brigades and the 78th Separate Air Assault Regiment were repelled near Novgorodskoye, Ocheretino, Novobakhmutovka, Netaylovo, and Berdychi (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 380 servicemen, one tank, one armoured fighting vehicle, and five motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, two 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzers, one 155-mm U.S.-made M109 Paladin self-propelled artillery system, two 105-mm U.S.-made M101 towed guns, three 122-mm D-30 howitzers, and one 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun were eliminated.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (28 April 2024)

Part II

▫️The Vostok Group of Forces’ units captured more advantageous lines, inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of AFU 58th mechanised infantry, 108th territorial defence brigades close to Pavlovka and Lugovskoye (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 85 servicemen, four pickups, one 122-mm German-made PzH-2000 self-propelled artillery system, and one 122-mm Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system.

One Anklav-N electronic warfare station and one ammunition depot were also destroyed.

▫️Units of the Dnepr Group of Forces inflicted fire damage on clusters of manpower of AFU 65th mechanised, 128th mountain assault, 126th territorial defence brigades near Kamenskoye, Rabotino (Zaporozhye region), Ivanovka, and Olgovka (Kherson region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 50 servicemen, two motor vehicles, one 155-mm U.S.-made M777 howitzer, and one Anklav-N electronic warfare station.

Operational-Tactical Aviation, Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have eliminated hangars with strike drones at the Kamenka airfield (Dnepropetrovsk region).

In addition, hangars with aircraft munitions and aircraft at the Priluki airfield (Chernigov region) and at the Starokonstantinov airfield (Khmelnitsky region), temporary deployment areas for foreign mercenaries, manpower and military hardware of the AFU in 121 areas were engaged.

Air defence systems shot down 46 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles and five U.S.-made ATACMS operational-tactical missiles during the day.