ES Morning Update May 6th 2024

We got the rally I was expecting on Friday, and it stopped right at the falling white trendline of resistance, which is shy a little of the actual 61.8% retracement at 5192, but this isn’t an exact science.

The market never makes it that easy, and will commonly either pierce that zone or fall short, so I took my short Friday and will ride out anymore upside if it happens. The last move down is still coming in my opinion and should happen this week. The double conformation from 2 fake prints of 483.07 and 483.62 on the SPY gives me high confidence that we will hit them.

Currently, as of the close Friday, the ratio between the SPY and the SPX would put the SPX at 4844.77 if the 483.07 FP on the SPY is hit. If it’s just the 483.62 FP then the SPX should hit 4850.28, and with the the ES closing at 5161.50 on Friday, and the SPX at 5127.79, that’s about a 33 point difference.

Now that could be off a little as the ES did trade a little longer afterhours, while the SPX closed at 4pm EST, so I’d lean closer to about 30 points higher on it as I think it went up a little higher. The close right at 4pm EST was 5156.50, so that’s like 29 point difference to be precise. Anyway, you get the idea. We should hit the FP on the SPY and pierce it by some amount. That’s the exit for my shorts and I’ll look for a long right afterwards.

Have a blessed day.