Excess deaths

The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) has changed the way it calculates ‘excess deaths’ i.e. whether weekly recorded deaths are more (or less) than expected. The methodology had remained the same for at least half a century: to compare latest data with the average of the previous five years – a simple arithmetical task. Now a new system is used, weighting various factors and interpreting the results with statistical analyses that are far beyond the layperson’s grasp.

The change has been noted with suspicion by (for instance) Youtube commentators Simon Webb and Katie Hopkins. They and others think the government is keen to play down the figures because of the potential for public criticism. The inquiry into Covid and official actions taken started in 2022 and is still ongoing; will it be a face-saving whitewash?

Popular theories abound to explain the apparently anomalous increase in mortality. One, it’s fair to say, is the subject of systematic suppression in the media: the idea that the mRNA vaccines have adversely affected many people, sometimes fatally.

Other reasons are already provisionally accepted: that the lockdowns and other methods of social isolation led to delays in diagnosing and treating cancer, and to ‘deaths of despair’ as people harmed their health with overindulgence in alcohol and drugs. There was also the disastrous decision to ‘clear the decks’ in hospitals by moving elderly patients into care homes where they might infect others and where staff were afraid to look after them appropriately.

However there are a few additional possible reasons why the raw data for deaths in this country might have changed and will continue to change. You may be able to think of more.

1. The population is ageing
2. The real number of people living in the UK may be higher than the official estimates. Indirect evidence may come from supermarket purchases or even Facebook usage
3. There are differences in health and life expectancy among ethnic groups that may become more significant as first and second generation immigration increases. Aside from genetics, people born in less developed countries may not have had a sound foundation in diet and medical assessment/treatment for continued good health as they age.
4. Drug deaths in the UK are soaring
5. Economic inequality is increasing and poorer people live less long, for various reasons. The statistics vary around regions of the country
6. For 2020-2022, male deaths outstripped female – the first time since 1981. Does this indicate that men, traditionally family providers, feel greater pressure and sense of failure in a declining economy and use less approprate coping strategies?
7. The NHS is failing, especially in the provision of GP services. The contract agreed under the Brown premiership released GPs from the obligation to provide evening and weekend cover and there is an increasing tendency for them to deal with queries remotely – that’s if one can get through on the phone in a reasonable time.

Not all of the above would explain the recent spikes, but it is clear that a subtler analysis is needed.