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The story of Dutchsinse (Part 2)

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Guest post written by Jens Skapski, last year's student geophysics, Ruhr-University Bochum, Germany
Jens is also the main person and creator behind the Earthquake Impact Database, the world's most detailed logbook of damaging earthquakes and Juskis Erdbebennews.de, a daily earthquake blog in German.


Have you ever wondered how some people become part of YouTube-Channels, Instagram Accounts and Weblogs with many thousands of followers? If you ask Google how to become an own video, picture or entry on these platforms, it will give you two options:

  1. If you have a special talent, that grabs the public interest
  2. If you are a VIP and this part of the public life

But there is a third way, as I found out lately: By accident. You just need a way to share your opinion (I’d rather call it teaching) in a public way. You need a target person, for example a popular YouTuber, that could really be fucked off by your content. And of course: You need thousands of fanboys, including male and female, that violently attack you in any possible way, to defend their hero, the mighty Dragonking Sir Dutchington MCMXII.

When is a forecast relevant? statistically, and for the people?
This is the second story of Dutchsinse. Although, I like it to use some rhetorical devices to outline my own style of writing, including humoristic elements as well as colorful metaphors, I won’t continue in the same style as in my first text. Might get boring for me and for people who proclaim, scientists are just repeating what they have learned without opening their mind for new stuff. Something that Dutchsinse is said to do. Wait, what was the definition of revolution again?
However, as I have shown the methods of Dutchsinse to manipulate his fanboys (male and female, I won’t repeat this, keep it in mind!) in my last text, I will now have a deeper look into his forecasts. I don’t want to show you the success rate again, look at the old sheats and you will find them. But I want to tell you something about the significance of his forecasts and why this strongly influences the success rate, which is said to be 75, 80% (Dutchy) or even 95% (fanboys). Some little introduction into more-detailed analysis that will follow later.
But first, a short addendum to my old text, where, yes, a minor mistake was done. As Dutchy has said in his latest forecast video, that “The North and South has already moved” (7/29/2018 -- Global Earthquake Forecast, Min 19:35), I assumed that he meant the Hormozgan earthquake in the south, and … I have never expected that Kermanshah is Northern Iran in is his definition (which is clearly in the West for me). A misunderstanding that lead to the assumption he would have seen some movement again that was censored.
Sorry for that, but I know that other people also have problems to understand things correctly... However, the key point, that you can’t censor people’s voices (or our detection systems) when an earthquake hits a populated area, remains.
And maybe a hint for the future: Kermanshah isn’t Northern Iran. Really!

Okay, back to Dutchys forecast list from my last post. But, instead of giving short comments, I will show the number of quakes of the forecasted size that have hit these areas since 2017 (84 weeks, counted until August 2nd) based on the EMSC feed Dutchy is using, too.
Some fanboys told me in the latest discussion that they would even count a hit, if the actual quake was one magnitude lower than forecasted. I am not sure if Dutchy also says this, but usually not (at least I can’t remember any scene where he said this. Though he gives some tolerance of around -0.3 or so).
To say if an earthquake forecast is useful, you may consider some criterias. I don’t want to say here that forecasts are only useful when lives can be saved. Instead, we should think about: What do you want to have forecasted? Compare it with the weather: I want to know if I have to expect a thunderstorm, a significant event, on thursday evening or so. Why do I want to know? Because I am living in Germany and, even in summer, thunderstorms are not so common that we consider them as “Business as usual” (at least on a daily basis). If I would live in the tropics, let’s say, Brazil, Indonesia, where thunderstorms follow the diurnality, I don’t ask for that because it is very likely that it will happen. That’s why people don’t need to know if a deep M4 quake is to be expected within one week: It will happen, if no miracle prevents it, and the people there know it. And, from the view of the forecaster, if you want your forecasts to be accepted you should exclude statistical flukes as good as possible.
Thus, I will accept every forecast where the average recurrence time of the event is at least six times larger than the forecasted timespan. Usually the threshold should be much higher, but ok... In this case it means if a region had more than 14 quakes of the predicted magnitude since 2017, the forecast be considered “worthless” (insignificant) as the statistical chance of a fluke is so high that you cannot prove the theory behind the forecast with it. I will go further into this at the end of the text.

Forecast Review (again) - significant, yes or no?
This is again the list of his forecasts as they were issued in the 7/29/2018 video. Commented by myself.

M5.9-6.0 New Caledonia
Assuming he means Vanuatu, which is a region of very high seismic activity due to the subduction zone, 17 M5.9 + earthquakes have hit since 2017, which is one quake every five weeks. So he forecasted a quake that happens about once per month - rather unspectacular in Vanuatu / New Caledonia and a very good chance for a hit, although people wouldn’t thank you for it. If it doesn’t happen this week, next week will be another good chance.

M5.3 Makira (Solomon Islands)
Basing on what Dutchy has said in his video, this forecast should be valid for the complete San Cristobal Trench, a location which sees those quakes every six weeks based on the average rate since 2017 (12 quakes).

M5.3-5.4 N. Coast New Guinea/Bismarck Sea
15 quakes since 2017 of this size there, so still no Wow-effect here.

M7.0 South/Central Sumatra
If this becomes true, it would be the first quake of that magnitude in years. Rather unusual and hardly to explain by coincidence or … “luck” (If you want to call it “luck” when people die).

M6.0 Irian Jaya
Same is valid for this quake. There hasn’t been any comparable seismic activity in the past years. But many smaller quakes.

M6.5 Luzon
No quakes if this size in the past year.

M6.2-6.3 Off East Coast of Honshu
Quakes of this size are pretty common for Japan. 15 events since 2017 around Honshu, which doesn’t make a hit unlikely. Additionally, we have to keep in mind that the latest slow slip event in Chiba may have increased the chance for a large quake there, that the chance for a big quake may be even higher than considered just by statistical assumption.

3.0-4.0 Australia
According to Geoscience Australia 164 quakes of Magnitude 3 or larger have happened in Australia during the past 84 weeks (I counted the whole country, as no specific regions were named in the video). You don’t need to be a genius to see that the occurrence of at least one quake per week is very likely. No forecast needed here. Absolutely insignificant.

M5.5 Xinjiang
Different situation in Xinjiang where only five M5.5+ quakes were registered since 2017 which gives an average of one quake every four months or so.

M5.7-5.9 Southern Myanmar
One quake, if we only count Myanmar, three if we include the Andamans.

M5.4 India-Nepal
Sikkim was highlighted here but I extended the area to the whole border regions of both countries. However, no quake of this size since 2017 (not including Tibet). A significant forecast.

M5.6 Central Iran
Just to make sure: Central Iran is NOT Kermanshah, is NOT Tehran, is NOT Bushehr. Only the strong quakes during the sequence in December 2017 have happened in Central Iran. However, due to the high activity of the past weeks, a local stress transfer may have occurred from the Hormozgan and Kerman earthquakes, which could have slightly increased the chance for a new quake. The chance for this remains low, thus a significant forecast.

M5.0 Italy/Croatia
No doubt that this is significant, a quake of this size could be dangerous and hasn’t happened since January 2017.

M4.0 Romania/Albania/Italy (3 quakes)
134 quakes (mainly Italy aftershocks) since 2017, which would make the occurrence of one quake statistically likely. As three quakes are mentioned, it changes the situation, but still remains insignificant.

M4.5-5.0 Iceland
17 quakes since 2017

M4.5-5.0 Azores
22 quakes since 2017

M5.0 North Island
M4.7 Cook Strait
One quake could fulfill both forecasts as both regions are close together. As the EMSC catalog doesn’t guarantee completeness for this region, it’s better to use GeoNet here which shows a total of 26 quakes within the region [171,179;-34,-42].

M5.1-5.2 Colombia
Nine quakes since 2017

M4.7-5.0 Barbados/Antilles
13 events since 2017

M4.0 Dominican Republic
25 events here, the most seismically active country in the caribbean. Thus even the Magnitude limit is irrelevant.

M5.1-5.2 Chile
Usually you shouldn’t even count here because your feeling alone says that a M5+ quake in Chile happens every few days. The EMSC data confirm it: 107 quakes since 2017, among them some aftershock of course, which should usually be excluded, but as they are not excluded from the forecast, they won’t be excluded here.

M5.2 South Sandwich Islands
We said that the significance of a forecast is not defined by the affected population, which would here be almost 0. However, 47 quakes since 2017 make this forecast insignificant.

M5.5 Oaxaca/Guerrero
A region which is still suffering many aftershocks from last year which also affect the statistics and give a higher average of quakes than usual. However, as it is still lower than our fixed threshold (here we had six quakes) we consider this forecast significant.

M5.4 Nicaragua
Same here, only two quakes of this size.

M6.8 Chuginadak Island (Aleutians)
Very specific location without comparable recent activity. Thus very significant.

M4.7-5.0 San Francisco
No quakes of this size in the SF Bay area in the past years.

M4.3-4.5 Santa Barbara
Only a few quakes, depending on the drawing of the borders (only Santa Barbara or whole LA area?). However, significant prediction

Some size Southern California
I don’t comment on this. “Some size” is just ridiculous and I hope Dutchy knows this.

M4.7 Oklahoma/Kansas
Exactly one quake in these states with Magnitude 4.7 or more. Rare, unlikely quake, significant forecast.

M4.0-5.0 Deep Fiji
319 quakes since January 2018(!). No more comment…

M4.0-5.0 Deep Afghanistan
213 events… 195 of them in more than 80 km depth

M4.0-5.0 Deep Banda Sea
187 quakes...

M4.0-5.0 Deep Celebes Sea
Far less than in Afghanistan, but still 25, which makes it insignificant

M4.0-5.0 Deep Bonin Islands
32 quakes, insignificant

M4.0-5.0 Deep Sea of Okhotsk
Only 11 quakes, which was lower than my initial feeling, but ok, makes it the only significant forecast for deep quakes.

Okay, to put it in a nutshell:
We have 36 forecasts for the current week. Of these 36 predictions 16 are considered insignificant due to the high occurrence frequency. His hits were all among the quakes which are considered, so as likely to occur even without any indicator that tells you.
All his hits were found within areas where his forecasts are statistically insignificant since earthquakes of his forecasted magnitude occur on such a frequent level, that forecasts are basically not even necessary.

Just following the statistics, at least six forecasts (which are the ones with an average recurrence time of below one week) should usually be a hit. To prove that these forecasts are not just random, more than six, better eight to ten hits are needed. A bit more difficult with the significant forecasts. Due to fluke it can be the case that one, two, maybe three become a hit. More hits would indicate that it is not just fluke. However, currently it is 2.
Until August 4th 12:00 UTC, exactly five forecasts can be called as a sure hit, among them four insignificant. Four others (all insignificant) would be hits if we assume high tolerance regarding the location of the quakes epicenters (3x M4 SE Europe - Greece included although not specified by Dutchsinse, M4 Celebes Sea - actually Celebes, M4 Sea of Ochotsk - actually Kuriles Basin) and depths (M4 Afghanistan - intermediate depth).

Notice that these table includes times in UTC. Dutchsinse forecast quake for one week beginning 3 UTC on Monday morning. However, this three additional hours given for Dutchsinse don’t change the result.

Based on the given average rates, some further comment to Dutchys deep quake theory. You know, this “Deep quakes trigger shallower larger quakes” stuff.
To put it simple, If we assume that 319 deep Fiji quakes of Magnitude 4+ have happened since January this year, we should assume that in its vicinity (1000 miles) at least 319 M5+ quakes have occurred, if this theory is correct. This includes Vanuatu, Tonga, Samoa, Kermadec Islands. Was it the case?
No.
Considering EMSC Data, 56 earthquakes larger than Magnitude 5 and less than 80 km deep have occurred in this area [-28°, -6°; 165°, -150°]. Means: Just every sixth deep quake would have triggered a shallower larger one. Well, not even a higher success rate than Dutchsinse’s discrete forecast quote.

You (hopefully) see: Many of his forecasts are statistical irrelevant due to the high recurrence interval. This should usually give Dutchy a rather high success rate, plus some flukes even if his theory is really absolutely nonsense. (Yes, I am aware of the study claiming that strong quakes trigger other quakes near the antipode and I am aware of Dutchys reaction on it. But this is just another proof how Dutchy is misinterpreting things (not that I would need another…). More on that in a following story )


Post Scriptum
Last but not least: Fanboys, what’s up with you? Your Master told you to stay polite and keep it civil when you contact me or Jamie [8/01/2018 -- Smeared on "earthquake report" website, Min 1:21]. And what did you do?
Maybe you will learn a better behaviour before we publish part three of this story.

 


Source: https://earthquake-report.com/2018/08/04/the-story-of-dutchsinse-part-2/


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    • Indiangunslinger

      Jens, You present yourself as a very jealous person who cannot do anything significant in life so you pick on someone who is very good ,(my opinion) at what he does. You can pick apart every little minor fault but I have been following Dutchsinse for about 3 years and they way he presents or forecasts EQ around the world has been unmatched by our best Geo-scientists. SO stick that in your pipe and smoke.

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